GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT | AFP | Getty Pictures
“I believe our final projections in December are nonetheless very clearly believable,” President Christine Lagarde mentioned at a Reuters occasion on Wednesday.
In December, the financial institution estimated a 3.9% GDP (gross home product) fee for 2021, after a contraction of seven.3% in 2020. The official and closing studying for 2020 shouldn’t be but recognized.
Nonetheless, for the reason that publication of those forecasts final month, many European governments have introduced robust new lockdowns or an extension of present restrictions.
The Netherlands introduced Tuesday a lockdown till Feb. 9. Germany, in lockdown since November, is contemplating extending it for an additional eight to 10 weeks. Austria stays closed till late January. France has intensified its curfew and Portugal is considering a brand new lockdown too.
These measures comply with an uptick in instances and deaths from Covid-19 for the reason that Christmas interval, in some instances the brand new figures are worse than in the course of the first wave within the spring of 2020.
“Vital restrictions will stay in place effectively past January. In some nations, a gradual re-opening might begin at a while in February. In others, that will not occur earlier than March,” Florian Hense, a euro zone economist at Berenberg, mentioned in an e mail on Wednesday.
Nonetheless, the principle concern for Lagarde is what occurs after March.
“What could be a priority could be that after the top of March, these member states nonetheless have to have lockdown measures and if, as an illustration, vaccination packages have been slowed down,” Lagarde mentioned, based on Reuters.
The longer the lockdowns proceed, the higher the influence on the economies that share the one foreign money.
The euro zone started vaccinating residents simply earlier than 2020 got here to an finish, however the rollout has been embroiled in some controversy. Critics argue that the deployment of Covid-19 jabs has been too gradual, and that there aren’t sufficient vaccines.
Nonetheless, the European Fee — which has negotiated contracts with vaccine producers — has denied these accusations.
Lagarde’s ECB has, from the beginning of the pandemic, introduced unprecedented emergency measures to help the euro space. Its bond-buying stimulus program (PEPP) is at the moment set to final till March 2022, totaling some 1.85 trillion euros ($2.25 trillion).
Talking Wednesday, Lagarde mentioned the ECB might lengthen this program as soon as once more if wanted.